Someone aimed the mob at the elves — and the mob arrived. Half the capital’s elves are dead. (S7)
The Question
Who started the elf-assassin rumor, and is the violence spontaneous or directed? And does anyone benefit from the pogrom having actually happened?
The Pogrom (S7)
The midsummer riot was, for the elves, an extermination event:
- Roughly half of the capital’s ~10,000 elves are dead. Most of the rest are homeless.
- The city-consuming fire started in the elven quarter and got out of control.
- Five days later, ~100 people described as “leaders of the rioters” were publicly executed. (Who ordered it is unstated.) Whatever else that is, it is the state declaring the riot criminal — five days after the elven quarter burned.
- Recovery weeks later still prioritized clearing bodies to prevent plague — a grim echo of the “elves brought plague” line that helped start it.
- The party’s own household problem persists in miniature: the Uryula house staff also dislike elves, and Gnaeus and Ari had to work to quell their concerns. (S7)
Speculation
The theory “the pogrom was the goal” is now the theory “the pogrom worked.” If someone built the rumor campaign to force a crackdown and discredit Sultan Fahim’s tolerance policy, they now have: a burned elven quarter, a five-thousand-body proof that the policy “failed,” a mass execution to embitter the Hazadi street, and a homeless population to radicalize or expel. Watch what gets proposed next — whoever moves policy off this catastrophe first is worth a hard look.
Escalation (S6) — it reached the streets
Returning to the capital in midsummer, after weeks away:
- Politically nothing had changed. The talk about elves had gotten worse.
- Three lines are now circulating openly:
- “Elves brought plague” — new, and imported: the plague is a western disaster (Weissbaden, 1732) that reached Hazad with the refugees.
- “The elven seductress who got her fangs into Bahir tried to assassinate him” — the S1/S3 rumor, hardened.
- “A secret elven cabal is controlling some of the nobles.”
- Sadiq, an elf and a quartermaster of the Order of the Eagle, wore his order’s tabard to a private meeting in a winehouse specifically to reduce trouble for being an elf. That is what the temperature is at.
- Gnaeus quietly began buying a separate house to keep Ari in, because the estate’s own servants were “extra upset” about her.
- The night the party returned from Gazra, the city rioted and a mob attacked the Ulpia estate with a battering ram. When the mob saw Ari, it got angrier. Scores of rioters were killed or wounded. Whether the riots are over is unknown. See The Riot at the Ulpia Estate.
Speculation
The story has been upgraded, in two directions at once, while the party was at sea. It began as an elf did one crime — which needs a suspect. It is now also elves are a contamination (plague) and elves are a conspiracy (the cabal). Neither of those needs any evidence at all, and neither ever runs out.
Speculation
The cabal line is the one to trace. “Elves brought plague” is the sort of thing a frightened city invents by itself. “A secret elven cabal is controlling some of the nobles” is not — it is specific, it is structural, and it does a job the other two don’t: it makes any noble who defends an elf look compromised. That poisons Sultan Fahim’s tolerance policy at the top rather than the street, and it pre-emptively discredits anyone who might push back.
It also lands squarely on this party. Gnaeus is a Great House noble with a bound elf in his household, whose estate a mob has now attacked. If someone wanted a worked example of the cabal rumor, they have one. Compare the S3 observation that the elf-assassin rumor spread suspiciously fast. Find out who is saying this one, and where it started.
What We Know
- A rumor variant blames an elf for the attempt on Baahir; per Ari’s contacts in the Isbi’liyyah elven community, this rumor appeared very quickly — suspiciously so. (S3)
- Elves have been attacked; at least one house has been burnt down (connection unclear). (S3)
- By midsummer 1739 it is city-wide, and violent. (S6)
- Background kindling: the older rumor of Baahir and a “seductive elf” (S1), lay beliefs that elves are Corrupted, and refugee-strained ghettos (see Elves).
- The community is frightened. (S3)
Theories
Theory: Cover for the real attackers
The fastest-spreading rumor is the one someone paid to spread. An elf scapegoat is cheap, plausible to the mob, and directs attention away from anyone with actual court access — which the dockside attack required.
Theory: Pressure on the Sultan's tolerance policy
Sultan Fahim’s elf reforms have enemies (Conservatives, anyone nostalgic for harder doctrine). Elf pogroms in the capital would force the Eyes to crack down and discredit the policy — a political goal independent of Baahir entirely.
Theory: The pogrom was the goal
The “pressure on the Sultan’s tolerance policy” theory below predicted exactly this: elf violence in the capital forcing the Eyes to crack down and discrediting Sultan Fahim’s reforms. A summer later, the capital is rioting. If that was the plan, it is working, and the assassination attempt on Baahir was the match rather than the point.
Next Steps
- Trace where and with whom the rumor started (Ari’s contacts) — and, more urgently, where the “secret elven cabal controlling some of the nobles” line started. That one is aimed at the nobility, not the street, and it is aimed at people like Gnaeus
- Check whether the burnt house connects to the attacks
- Watch the Eyes’ response — now, after a riot with a body count
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Is the elven community in the Isbi’liyyah ghetto safe tonight?Answered in the worst way (S7): half of them are dead. Now: are Ari’s specific contacts among the living? Still nobody has checked - Ask Sadiq what the Eagle is actually doing about it — he is an elf inside the order
- See The Riot at the Ulpia Estate for the snipers, which may be a separate problem wearing this one as a costume